Now, this article has very little to do with marketing. But everything to do with my love of data, media, and an obsession with understanding human behaviour. So bare with me.
My year 11 Economics teacher, the unflappable Mr Taylor, once said that a recession was a 'self fulfilling prophecy', that's why they call it the 'R' word. He was right. The theory holds that when people start predicting a recession, they tighten their spending, stop investing, and architect a recession. Everyone knows this.
So it got me wondering, is Google trends a leading or trailing indicator of a recession? Let's explore.
If you look below, Google trends for the term 'Recession' tend to peak around periods of recession. You can clearly see the 2008/09 crisis and even the short lived recession in 2020 before the federal reserve fired up the money printer.
But whereas most Google searches are bottom of funnel actions. Meaning, they're the action someone takes just before purchasing a product and taking an action. In the context of a recession, these aren't people reacting to a recession they're in. It's very likely that we're watching the growth in recession induced fear in real time - which, if Mr Taylor was correct, should actually be predictive of a future recession.
This isn't the most revolutionary blog post I'll write, but it's something I thought was interesting. If the 'r' word is a self fulfilling prophecy, then there's no better way to measure people's recession fears than through their search intent - which offers a very real (and sometimes gross) window into their psyche.